Be sober about industrial growth

AAP3798102-00037 Since the fourth quarter of 2021, as the market has increased its efforts to ensure stable prices, industrial production has gradually recovered, and the recovery momentum has continued in January-February 2022. Under the role of the policy to promote the smooth operation of the industrial economy, China’s industrial production is accelerating, and the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January and February, 3.2 percentage points faster than that in December 2021. From the perspective of growth, more than 90% of the 41 major industries are growing, of which 80% are growing faster than in December 2021. Fu Linghui believes that the acceleration of China’s industrial production mainly has the following factors: First, the supply of energy elements has been strengthened, and the internal power of industrial recovery has been strengthened. Second, all parts of the country have stepped up efforts to stabilize growth, increasing support for key industries and areas, and improving market demand has led to faster industrial growth. Third, AAP3798102-00037 since 2022, the world economy as a whole is still recovering, which has driven the growth of industrial exports. Fourth, long-distance travel increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the passenger volume of railway and civil aviation maintained double-digit growth, and holiday consumption was more obvious.

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AAP3798102-00037 From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points higher than that in December 2021 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the two-year average growth rate in 2021. Among them, the value added of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size in February increased by 0.34% over January, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index increased by 0.1 percentage points over January, and the expected index of enterprise production and operation activities increased by 1.2 percentage points over January.

In the third quarter of 2021, affected by multiple factors such as the epidemic situation and flood situation, China’s industrial production is facing certain pressure, especially in the fourth quarter of 2021, it is constrained by energy and raw materials, and industrial production is affected to a certain extent. Fu Linghui said that China’s economy is still recovering and imbalances still exist. At present, the growth trend of China’s industries above scale is relatively good, but we must clearly see that there is still a certain pressure on China’s industrial production below scale. Due to the rise in commodity prices, the upstream price rise is relatively high, and the pressure on middle and downstream enterprises is relatively large, especially some small and medium-sized enterprises. “In the manufacturing PMI, the PMI of small enterprises has been in a low boom range for many months, which will lower the overall AAP3798102-00037 industrial growth rate to a certain extent, and we must keep a clear mind about industrial growth.” Fu Linghui stressed.

At present, the high volatility of international commodity prices, the cost pressure of enterprises is relatively large, and the price increase of upstream industries is relatively high, which has some adverse effects on the middle and downstream industries and the operation of small and micro enterprises. At the same time, there are still blocked points in the industrial chain and supply chain, and sporadic epidemics in some places will affect industrial growth. Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, it is necessary to implement the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction to support manufacturing and small and micro enterprises, strengthen financing support for industries seriously affected by the epidemic, reduce production costs of enterprises, further promote innovation-driven, strengthen the main position of enterprises in innovation, strengthen key technology research, increase tax incentives for innovation, maintain the stability of industrial chain and supply chain, and promote the steady and healthy development of industrial economy.