Clean and low-carbon, with new energy as the main body is the core

0190-02748 At present, China’s electricity production is still dominated by coal power. In 2020, China’s full-caliber coal power generation will be 4.63 trillion KWH, accounting for 60.8% of the total power generation. The proportion of new energy installed capacity is about 26%, and the proportion of electricity generation is only 11.2%.

With the promotion of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutral process, the installed capacity and power generation of new energy represented by wind power and photovoltaic will gradually increase, and the degree of electricity cleanliness in China will also be greatly improved. In this process, the power generation cost and development layout of new energy will become the key factors affecting its development.

Source: Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission

New Energy Power Generation Policy and Market Development Outlook

01

The cost of new energy power generation has fallen rapidly

Economy is a prerequisite for the 0190-02748 large-scale development of new energy. With technological progress and large-scale development, the LCOE of new energy power generation represented by photovoltaic and wind power is declining year by year. At present, the LCOE of China’s centralized photovoltaic and onshore wind power is lower than that of ultra-supercritical coal power, and the LCOE of new energy + energy storage power may be lower than that of fossil energy in 2030.

Data source: Wood Mackenzie Battle for the future 2021: Asia Pacific power and renewables competitiveness report Analysis of power technology and generation cost trends (LCOE)

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02

Both centralized and distributed

0190-02748 The “Three North” region is the most abundant area of wind energy and solar energy resources in China, while the load center of our country is concentrated in the central and eastern regions, the geographical characteristics of the reverse distribution of load center and resource center is the main contradiction restricting the development of new energy in our country. In order to solve this contradiction, we need to start from many aspects:

• A large base with multiple complementary capabilities. Due to the obvious volatility and intermittency of new energy power generation, it is difficult to realize the full transmission of new energy power by UHV lines. China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” pointed out that “to build a number of multi-energy complementary clean energy base”, by matching a certain proportion of adjustable power sources, such as thermal power, hydropower, etc., to achieve multi-energy complementary, to promote new energy consumption.
• UHV transmission. In 2020, 22 UHV lines will deliver 531.8 billion kWh of electricity annually, of which 244.1 billion kWh is renewable energy, an increase of 3.8%, and renewable energy accounts for 45.9% of the total electricity. It opens up the conversion channel of resource advantage and economic advantage, and eases the imbalance of load center and resource center in our country to a certain extent.
• Distributed new energy. Distributed energy has the 0190-02748 advantages of flexible layout and high energy utilization efficiency. In theory, the development of distributed new energy economy close to the load center is another important method to effectively solve the contradiction of reverse distribution in addition to UHV engineering and multi-energy complementary large-base method.

“China’s eastern cities should give priority to the development and use of ‘around’ energy, coupled with the” distant “energy sent from the west to the east, eastern energy self-sufficiency and west-east power transmission combination, should not wait for the west to supply the east, but should change the way of thinking, self-production and self-marketing of energy, continue to increase the proportion of energy self-sufficiency.”

In the future, China will build a centralized and distributed renewable energy development pattern through the construction of multi-energy complementary large bases, trans-regional UHV transmission and distributed new energy construction, and promote the development of new energy.