The situation varies widely from industry to industry

CS513 3BSE000435R1 According to Interact Analysis, areas such as robotics, logistics and warehouse automation have a better outlook than the overall manufacturing market. The large industrial sector is still struggling, but the mobile robot market is expected to grow by 20-30% by 2024. In addition, after a challenging 2023, the warehousing industry will also start to show signs of recovery.

Another bright spot in 2024 is likely to be the semiconductor industry, which stands out amid the pressure of the overall downturn in manufacturing. Current research indicates that the semiconductor industry is expected to usher in a peak year of significant growth, with output growth rates possibly even reaching double digits. In addition to the development needs of hot artificial intelligence technology, the “chip Act” and “Inflation Reduction Act” implemented in the United States provide policy benefits for semiconductor companies to invest in the United States, and are also boosting investment enthusiasm in the semiconductor industry.

The commercial vehicle industry is less optimistic in 2024, CS513 3BSE000435R1 especially in the non-road equipment segment, where the sluggish agricultural machinery market and the slowdown in the construction industry have curbed growth. In contrast, the road vehicle market has performed better and is close to a stable development trend.

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The machinery and equipment industry as a whole is also trying to recover, but the high inflation and high interest rates in the European and American markets have inhibited the willingness of manufacturing companies to invest in expansion, making the equipment industry difficult to get out of trouble after a difficult 2023.

Will global manufacturing recover in 2024?

Overall, we believe that 2024 will remain a challenging year for most regions, with no clear signs of recovery. However, most regions experienced a mild downturn in manufacturing output, with major countries such as the United States and Germany expected to shrink by only about half the amount affected by the pandemic in 2020. The current economic slowdown is difficult to avoid, mainly because high inflation and interest rates in Europe and CS513 3BSE000435R1 the United States continue to suppress market demand, and will affect many regions along the supply chain of global trade. However, the data show that the probability of this round of economic downturn can achieve a “soft landing”, and signs of recovery are expected in 2025.

As a manufacturing research institute, we will closely monitor changes in the data as well as global developments, and continue to update our forecasts. Our latest forecast shows a compound annual growth rate of 3.32% for global manufacturing between 2023 and 2028. At present, the manufacturing industry as a whole is not facing serious supply-side problems, and the overall growth prospects for the next five years are still relatively optimistic.