Looking ahead to the second quarter, whether the global economy can continue to recover depends on the following aspects. The first is the strength of the recovery of global market demand, which is the endogenous basis of the global economic recovery, and we need to continue to observe the subsequent trend of the new orders index of the manufacturing industry in various countries.

350092-136180-01 The second is the degree of improvement in the policy environment. Europe’s weak economic recovery and easing inflationary pressures are expected to push the ECB to cut interest rates faster. Euro-area harmonized CPI fell to 2.4 percent in March from 2.6 percent in February, Eurostat data showed. The data came after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the bank would cut its key interest rate in June if upcoming inflation and wage data were in line with its forecasts. The release of the data increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. As more advanced economies begin to cut interest rates, it will have a positive impact on the global economic recovery.

Finally, there is the extent to which the headwinds affecting global trade have eased. From the current situation, geopolitical conflicts and trade restrictions are all adverse factors that interfere with the global economic recovery.

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The WTO has warned that geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty could limit the extent of a trade rebound. Food and energy prices could again be affected by geopolitical events. According to the report, geopolitical conflicts could reduce the real value of global trade in goods and services by 1.8% and global GDP by 1%.

Wto Director-General Joaquin Iweala said: “We are making progress in the recovery of global trade, thanks to resilient supply chains and a solid multilateral trade framework. “We must reduce risks such as geopolitical disputes and trade fragmentation to maintain economic growth and stability.”

350092-136180-01 Overall, the overall recovery trend of the global manufacturing industry in the first quarter of this year is better than that in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the global economy continues to rise steadily. Driven by the positive signs in the global economy, countries should uphold and practice multilateralism, strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and economic and trade cooperation, reduce trade frictions, promote unimpeded logistics and industrial chain coordination, and seek new ways of trade cooperation to better promote sustained global economic recovery.