Will robots be the next smartphone?

560CVT10  Analysts at Goldman Sachs Research are more optimistic about the global humanoid robot market than they were a year ago. As advances in artificial intelligence accelerate and investment in the industry grows faster than expected, the outlook for robots that help people with everything from folding clothes to disposing of hazardous waste has improved.

According to a report by Goldman Sachs research analyst Dujaguelin, the total addressable market for humanoid robots is expected to reach $38 billion by 2035, a more than six-fold increase over previous forecasts. At the same time, estimates of robot shipments also increased fourfold to 1.4 million units. This increase was mainly driven by lower material costs, which decreased by 40%. This means that the profitability of the robotics industry will improve faster.

The advances in AI surprised us the most, “the team wrote in the report, 560CVT10  which is a key reason for the predicted changes, referring to advances such as robotic large language models (LLMs). The Goldman study points to significant progress in end-to-end AI, where models can train themselves without human engineers manually coding everything. This has accelerated the development of robots, allowing these devices to accomplish more tasks and adapt more quickly to new situations (such as working outside a factory).

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Robot parts may become more affordable

560CVT10  The robot’s components, from high-precision gears to actuators, show signs that they may also cost less than previously thought, speeding up commercialization. In the last year, the cost of manufacturing humanoid robots has dropped from an estimated range of $50,000 per unit (low-end models) to $250,000 (most advanced versions) to the current range of $30,000 to $150,000. Our analysts had expected a 1,520% annual decline, but the actual cost fell by 40%.

This is mainly because there are now cheaper parts to choose from, more supply chain options, and improved design and manufacturing techniques. This could lead to a year earlier timeline for factory applications and two to four years earlier for consumer applications than previously estimated by Goldman research.

‘We expect cost reductions to continue in the coming years,’ 560CVT10  Goldman Sachs Research said in its report.

According to the team’s projections, more than 250,000 humanoid robots will ship by 2030, almost all of them for industrial use. Our analysts expect consumer robot sales to grow rapidly over the next decade, with more than a million units sold annually in just over a decade.