Which countries are most advanced in the field of humanoid robots?

DVSC-TT-14C-09 From a geographical perspective, no one country or region is completely dominant in this emerging field at the moment. Some Western companies may have the most advanced AI software models, while Asia could become a manufacturing hub for humanoid robot components due to its extensive supply chain base and lower manufacturing costs.

Another reason Goldman’s research department is more optimistic is that more players are devoting resources to the field of humanoid robots, Li said. The Chinese government has set up a robotics fund to support research and development, and listed component makers are hiring staff and pouring money and human resources into related areas.

There are signs that the hardware for most humanoid robots is already available, DVSC-TT-14C-09 or at least close to maturity. According to Goldman Sachs, the robot’s components, such as cameras, motors, force sensors, motion gears and batteries, are mostly ready for commercial use.

General-purpose robots still face some challenges.

Not that all obstacles have been overcome, of course. For example, some components require a limited number of high-precision grinding machines, making it difficult to increase production. The cost of some components remains high due to limited capacity or long manufacturing cycles.

DVSC-TT-14C-09

There are still significant bottlenecks in AI and software development for robotic operations (such as grasping objects) and interactions (taking voice commands from untrained humans). While Goldman’s research department believes that these issues will eventually be addressed to enable mass-produced general-purpose humanoid robots, the viability of such machines has yet to be proven.

DVSC-TT-14C-09 Using existing technology, Goldman Sachs research predicts that the demand for humanoid robots in structured environments such as manufacturing will grow significantly. This could include use cases such as electric vehicle assembly and parts classification. Industry studies show that about 70 percent of manufacturing in China is already done by machinery and automation, while only 20 percent is done by human labor and 10 percent is done by managers. As humanoid robots are more flexible and able to adapt to complex terrain, our analysts believe they can drive the growth of the industrial automation market.

The Goldman Sachs study notes that humanoid robots are particularly attractive in tasks that are “dangerous, dirty, and tedious.” Our analysts predict huge potential demand for robots in areas such as mining, disaster relief, nuclear reactor maintenance and chemical manufacturing. Customers may be willing to pay more for robots that can do dangerous jobs that people don’t want to do. Importantly, robots can also provide labor in industries where labor is scarce.

Assuming a labor replacement rate of 515% for automotive manufacturing DVSC-TT-14C-09 and hazardous jobs such as disaster relief and nuclear reactor work, the global demand for humanoid robots could potentially reach 1.1 million to 3.5 million units. Our analysts predict that the best investment opportunities right now may be in the component manufacturers that make up the supply chain.

In a scenario of rapid innovation and soaring demand, humanoid robots are poised to become the next “must-have” device, like smartphones or electric cars, according to Goldman Sachs research. Such robots will play an important role in manufacturing and dangerous jobs, but will also help care for the elderly and fill gaps in factory labor shortages.